If every burger eater out there was willing to replace their beef patty with an environmentally friendly substitution derived from microbial protein, we would be able to halve annual deforestation and associated CO2 emissions. A recent modeling study published in Nature and led by Florian Humpenöder, a climate modeler at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, simulated four different scenarios, where regular red meat was replaced with sugar-based microbial protein by 0% (reference scenario), 20%, 50%, and 80%.
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The authors investigated potential environmental benefits of partially replacing per-capita meat consumption with sugar-based microbial protein produced via biological fermentation. Their computational model estimated that substituting 20% of beef consumed globally per person with microbial protein by 2050 would cut annual deforestation and related CO2 emissions in more than half and lower emissions of a highly potent greenhouse gas, methane. Their model also predicted that further decrease of beef consumption would result in even more impressive reductions of deforestation and CO2 emissions, although these further benefits would not be linear. The reason for this non-linear correlation is that by increasing the substitution rate of beef with microbial protein, global agricultural structures and production would also need to be changed which would slow down the beneficial effects of the substitution.
Replacing 20% of global beef consumption with microbial protein cuts annual deforestation and associated CO2 emissions by half
Original data from Humpenöder et al., Nature, 2022
The present study complements previous results from different research groups on the potential benefits of substituting meat with microbial protein which is currently available in grocery stores in many countries. At this point, it’s common knowledge that sooner than later we will need to make some difficult decisions to combat the current environmental crisis. The more information we have about which changes need to be implemented first and what potential benefits we may expect, the easier those decisions would be. The prediction model presented by the authors of this study also provides more dynamic, global, long-term estimations of the environmental benefits of choosing microbial-based substitutes over beef.
Reference:
Humpenöder, F., Bodirsky, B.L., Weindl, I. et al. Projected environmental benefits of replacing beef with microbial protein. Nature 605, 90–96 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04629-w
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