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    • Aug 9, 2020
    • 4 min read

Why are we still talking about the virus?

We have started this science chronicle with a purpose to make some general biological concepts more accessible to those who’d like to learn more science but who don’t necessarily have the scientific background. Our combined experience working in biological research for more than 15 years allows us to effectively communicate novel findings in the biological world to eager-to-learn readers. We talked about restoration of the global ocean and about a human gut microbiome, both extremely important and relevant scientific topics. However, our attention has been consistently shifted towards the COVID-19 pandemic because of its massive impact on our everyday lives. The COVID-19 situation is constantly changing and it doesn’t seem like the world is going back to its pre-pandemic state anytime soon. In this week’s post we are going to talk about the future. More specifically, about the future of the pandemic which has changed so much more than stock prices and the greeting etiquette.

Does the second wave exist and is it coming?


One of the things that has been constantly discussed on the news is when the second wave of the COVID-19 is coming and if we are going to have another lockdown. Without a doubt, it is a question that requires our full attention because we need to do our best to prepare for the situation in the coming months since our health and economy depend on it. However, while preparing for the second wave, we need to be fully aware about the current situation too. First of all, for the second wave to start, the first one needs to end, and in many places around the world, this hasn’t happened yet.


After studying the SARS-CoV-2 for the last 7 months, we know that it is different from influenza which normally follows seasonal waves. It’s worth keeping in mind that it may be counterproductive or even dangerous to assume that COVID-19 does the same. Because if we assume that the first wave is over and we have a break before the second one begins, it is possible that we may involuntarily lower our guard and stop being vigilant. However, in order to prevent the second wave, even if it is coming, we should not be taking this “break” as an opportunity to do all the things we couldn’t do during the winter lockdown of 2020. A much more responsible thing to do would be to follow the same guidelines which proved to be extremely effective at slowing down the spread of the virus.


Whether we decide to call it the second wave or something else (some more skeptical scientists use the term “tsunami”), it does appear that it’s coming. The fight against the virus is far from being over. The World Health Organisation (WHO) announced that the spread of the virus was “still accelerating” as of July 2020, with the total number of coronavirus infections reaching nine million. “While it took more than three months for the first million cases to be reported, the last million cases were reported in just eight days," said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Furthermore, it appears that we have not reached the required percentage of infections to hope that herd immunity may slow down the spread. Researchers from the Institute Pasteur in Paris estimate that herd immunity of approximately 60-70% is required to avoid the second wave and enable epidemic recovery. It means that many countries with a low rate of collective immunity should take additional steps in preparing for further outbreaks. For example, professor Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, has stated that how well we prepare in the next few months will directly influence the situation in the winter. He said: “There is no doubt there will be further outbreaks. Whether it will be a second wave, a tsunami or not, depends on how well we are doing.” France’s scientific council has also warned the government that a second wave is “extremely probable” to come in the fall – with some experts fearing that its magnitude may be even more significant that the first one’s.


The strange case of New Zealand.


The world as a whole is still definitely in the state of a pandemic with no clear timeframes of when it may get out of it. There are some notable exceptions, like New Zealand, - an isolated island nation that managed to win the battle against the virus (at least for the moment) by early on virtually cutting off all inbound travel and imposing strict guidelines within the country. New Zealand has implemented a reverse strategy in dealing with the virus by deciding to “throw everything at the pandemic at the start” as advised by Michael Baker, the doctor who consulted New Zealand’s government on the defense strategy. In March 2020 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern made a decision to close the borders entirely to almost all non-citizens or residents. This was an unprecedented step given the very small number of cases in the country at that time. While some countries made this decision much later when there was virtually no other choice left, New Zealand took these measures early on which allowed to stop the influx and slow down the transmission.

Take-home message


The New Zealand example clearly tells us that isolation, highly limited travel and strict guidelines are effective at halting the spread of the virus. Furthermore, these measures are pretty much all we currently have at our disposal to fight the virus. We can’t depend on herd immunity and the vaccine has not been developed yet. This can’t-appear-fast-enough vaccine is yet another COVID-19 topic of discussion with its own hopes, complications, and ambiguities which we will discuss in one of our following posts. For the time being we at Pretty Light Science encourage you to keep a good stock of soap, hand sanitizer, and face masks; avoid enclosed spaces with a lot of people; and do your best at following the social distancing guidelines imposed in your area. If the second wave is coming, we should do our best to be prepared for it as well as we can. A leading infectious disease expert Dr. Paul Keim from Northern Arizona University put it this way and we can’t agree more: “You know, the one thing we have control over is our own behavior. [We] have to be more compliant with social distancing, hygiene and masks. We have to [be] personally responsible…. I’m not sure what’s going to happen in the future, but we’ve got a ways to go before we’re out of this.‘


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